In 2011, the European Central Bank lifted rates and a recession ensued, but Moec says he does not believe they will be dissuaded from tightening monetary policy again, as they subscribe to the view that their role is to manage inflation, regardless of the wider economic conditions.
This is because, in his view, many subscribe to the economic principles of Milton Friedman, who advocated just such an approach.
Wade notes that investment markets continue to price assets based on the assumption that rates will rise at the same pace and trajectory as before Russia invaded Ukraine.
He says he does not believe either the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England will materially alter the course of their interest rate policy as a result of the Ukraine conflict.
Lagarias says the changed outlook for growth may mean that the outperformance of value stocks over the past year may be “paused” while the Ukraine crisis is raging, but he expects, because rates will continue to rise, that value stocks will perform well.
Wade says that if US rates policy were to change, then the outlook may brighten for emerging markets.
But Robert Horrocks, chief investment officer at Matthews Asia, says China’s approach to the conflict (that is, its backing of Russia) may mean “three trade blocks are created, one for the west, one for Russia and one for China.
"China had been building up strong trade links with Europe, and that has been damaged now, and could have long-term implications for the Chinese economy.”
David Thorpe is special projects editor at FTAdviser
