Japan  

Prospects for Japanese dividends

This article is part of
Guide to Japanese equities

According to Kwok Chern-Yeh, the equitable treatment of shareholders by Japanese companies has been "gaining traction" over the past few years.

Mr Kwok comments: "Given the strong balance sheets in Japan, we expect dividends to remain at least stable or gradually increase from a year ago, despite the uncertain environment."

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Headwinds

There are, however, possible headwinds of which investors should be aware before committing significant allocations towards Japan within their portfolios.

Although companies are paying more out towards shareholders currently, Mr Gibbs warns it is important to consider whether this could be a long-term trend or a short-term 'hook'.

He comments: "To truly judge whether the attitude to shareholders has changed in the long-term, we will need to see how companies react in a more difficult period or in a recessionary environment."

According to Mr Kwok, dividend growth also relies on companies being efficient with their cash and capital, in a way that they have not been doing historically.

He says: "In our view, a lot of companies have moved in a mechanical way to return cash to shareholders, in some cases buying back stock that is trading at relatively higher valuations in the past. This is not efficient use of capital." 

For David Jane, manager on Miton's multi-asset range, the fact the majority of Japanese companies do not consider dividends "a priority" could be a headwind.

He explains: "Very few companies so far pursue a progressive dividend policy. Also, dividends are difficult to increase at times when wages are not growing for political reasons.

"In the absence of growing wages and inflation, broad-based dividend growth at anything other than a very modest rate is unlikely."

Outlook

But Nick Peters, multi-asset portfolio manager of Fidelity International, says he thinks we are still likely to see rising dividends, and this is the most promising area of Abenomics.

He adds: "You can see the increasing focus on this and corporate governance in the creation of the JPX 400, an index whose criteria specifies strict corporate governance rules.

"These companies should outperform the less restrictive Nikkei 225 and we have a long-term trade to that effect in several of our multi-asset funds."

Alex Blake, client manager on the Baillie Gifford Japanese Equities Team, agrees. He says: "Last year dividends were up by 10 per cent year on year and we believe dividends will continue to grow, alongside earnings growth and as a result of balance sheet normalisation."

This is being borne out in the companies Robin Black, investment manager for global equities at Kames Capital, and his team has been meeting.